The protocol is we have something to take seriously. Nassim Nicholas Taleb and Russ Roberts have a spirited conversation about masks and pandemic risks. I feel like we do, but that’s just my 2 cents and I’m not sure Taleb would agree given his comments.I also would have asked how practical ‘quarantines’ would be as a crisis response. Masks: A little bit of inside baseball for the non-medical people. But the criteria for assessing risk should be much more nuanced and sophisticated than Taleb suggests and reaction needs to be much earlier - as he actually advocates.1,000 may be a useful criterion for historical research but that also will introduce selection bias as it will ignore risks (e.g. An EconTalk Podcast Listening Guide Nassim Taleb on the Financial Crisis Listen to the EconTalk podcast Nassim Taleb on the Financial Crisis and consider these questions. It’s actually fattest tail.So, we spend a trillion dollars on weaponry, nuclear warheads. Do we know enough about it today to conclude this is not the mega-bullet? The relevant papers discussed in the episode: ‘Systemic Risk of Pandemic via Novel Pathogens – Coronavirus: A Note’ - Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam, Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Yes, of course, many people have done so. The WHO did not declare it a pandemic for another month. Someone came up with a statistic that being hit by a car represented much larger risks for people. I mean, there is worse-And, here you're saying that if the average death rate from this pandemic forecast, which is based on a zillion assumptions also, is a million people, that that prediction is essentially meaningless.
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